区域一体化政策能否促进城市旅游发展?——基于长江经济带的实证检验

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 政策红利是影响区域旅游发展的重要因素之一。文章在剖析区域一体化政策影响城市旅游发展的理论基础上,以中国2008—2019年211个城市为研究样本,将实施长江经济带区域一体化政策的城市作为处理组,其他城市作为控制组,采用双重差分模型检视长江经济带区域一体化政策对旅游发展的影响,并运用中介效应模型进一步识别区域一体化政策影响旅游发展的内在机理。结果表明：长江经济带区域一体化政策的施行有利于沿线城市旅游发展,且通过政策外生性检验、平行趋势检验、替换指标检验、倾向得分匹配检验、安慰剂检验、内生性检验后仍然稳健。作用机制检验和异质性分析的结果表明：长江经济带区域一体化政策可以通过加强经济联系、推动产业结构升级、提升创新水平间接地促进城市旅游发展;然而,长江经济带区域一体化政策对城市旅游发展的影响存在异质性,“涓滴效应”大于“极化效应”。以上结论为长江经济带优化政策内容,精准施策,构建区域旅游协调发展机制提供了重要参考。

关键词: 长江经济带, 区域一体化政策, 旅游发展, 双重差分, 中介效应

Abstract: The policy dividend factor is one of the imperative factors that affect the development of regional tourism.On the basis of analyzing the theory that regional integration policies affect urban tourism development,this paper took 211 cities in China from 2008 to 2019 as research samples,and cities implementing regional integration policies in the Yangtze River Economic Belt as treatment groups and other cities as control groups.This paper adopted the double difference model （DID） to examine the impact of the regional integration policy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt on tourism development,and used the mediation effect model to further identify the internal mechanism of regional integration policies affecting tourism development.The result shows that the implementation of the regional integration policy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is conducive to the tourism development of the cities along the line,and it is still stable after the policy exogenous test,parallel trend test,replacement index test,propensity matching score test,placebo test,and endogenous test.The results of the mechanism test and heterogeneity analysis show that the regional integration policy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt can indirectly promote the development of urban tourism by strengthening economic ties,promoting the upgrading of industrial structure and upgrading the level of innovation;However,the impact of the regional integration policy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt on urban tourism development is heterogeneous,and the “trickle-down effect” is greater than the “polarization effect”.The conclusions provide an important reference for optimizing the policy content,implementing precise policies,and building a coordinated regional tourism development mechanism in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The policy dividend factor is one of the imperative factors that affect the development of regional tourism.On the basis of analyzing the theory that regional integration policies affect urban tourism development,this paper took 211 cities in China from 2008 to 2019 as research samples,and cities implementing regional integration policies in the Yangtze River Economic Belt as treatment groups and other cities as control groups.This paper adopted the double difference model （DID） to examine the impact of the regional integration policy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt on tourism development,and used the mediation effect model to further identify the internal mechanism of regional integration policies affecting tourism development.The result shows that the implementation of the regional integration policy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is conducive to the tourism development of the cities along the line,and it is still stable after the policy exogenous test,parallel trend test,replacement index test,propensity matching score test,placebo test,and endogenous test.The results of the mechanism test and heterogeneity analysis show that the regional integration policy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt can indirectly promote the development of urban tourism by strengthening economic ties,promoting the upgrading of industrial structure and upgrading the level of innovation;However,the impact of the regional integration policy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt on urban tourism development is heterogeneous,and the “trickle-down effect” is greater than the “polarization effect”.The conclusions provide an important reference for optimizing the policy content,implementing precise policies,and building a coordinated regional tourism development mechanism in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

Key words: Yangtze River Economic Belt, regional integration, tourism growth, difference in difference, mediation effect

中图分类号:

F592.0

王凯, 邹楠, 甘畅, 胡奕. 区域一体化政策能否促进城市旅游发展?——基于长江经济带的实证检验[J]. 旅游科学, 2023, 37(2): 40-59.

WANG Kai, ZOU Nan, GAN Chang, HU Yi. Can Regional Integration Policy Facilitate Urban Tourism Growth? —An Empirical Study on Yangtze River Economic Belt[J]. TOURISM SCIENCE, 2023, 37(2): 40-59.

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