Abstract: This paper first clarified the differences in the content of the previous adjustments of Hainan's offshore duty-free policy, and then empirically examined the impact of the offshore duty-free policy on the number of city-received tourists based on monthly data from 18 cities and counties in Hainan Province from 2010 to 2020. The results show that the first four and seventh adjustments of the offshore duty-free policy have a significant positive impact on the number of tourists received by cities. In the early, fifth, and sixth adjustments of the pilot program, however, the offshore duty-free policy has a non-significant or negative impact on the number of tourists received by cities. Further analysis reveals that the liberalization of duty-free amounts promotes the growth of city-received tourism more than the variety of duty-free items. In addition, the impact of the offshore duty-free policy is stronger for international tourists than domestic tourists, and the number of tourist arrivals received by the leading cities will be more stimulated by the offshore duty-free policy than other cities. Finally, in the long run, the establishment of duty-free stores on outlying islands has a negative impact on the number of tourists received by cities. The above findings provide some new insights into the future adjustment direction of Hainan's offshore duty-free policy and the development of the tourism industry.

Key words: offshore duty-free policy, duty-free shopping, tourism, Hainan, empirical analysis